Seat Sharing Conundrum for the LDF

The political scene in Kerala can be considered to be one of the most stable in the country with two long established alliances one led by the CPI(M) and the other led by the Congress alternating in power. A state with strong political polarisation, margins in elections are inevitably close and most parties and fronts have their strongholds. This is especially true in the case of Lok Sabha polls where the Fronts have consistently held most of their strongholds for years. The only exception to this came in the 2004 election when the LDF led by the CPI(M) swept the polls winning 18 out of the 20 seats in the state. This relative stability even extended to which seats were to be contested by various partners in the alliances. However, the recent delimitation of constituencies has upset this equillibrium.

Interestingly enough, the greater confusion appears to have been caused in the LDF which is generally known for amicable seat sharing while ugly fights are normally reserved for the 'bourgeoiuse' UDF. This time however, the trend appears to be reversed with the UDF having completed the allocation of seats and the LDF still embroiled in tussles. The root cause of the trouble stems from the CPI(M)'s desire to take back seats which had long ago been alloted to allies in view of the changed realities post delimitation. The biggest tussle as of now is over the Kozhikode Lok Sabha seat in North Kerala which is currently held by the JD(S) state chief M.P. Veerendrakumar. The CPI(M) wants to contest the seat giving the newly created Wayand Lok Sabha seat to the JD(S). The JD(S) doesn't want the exchange as Kozhikode which was a fairly marginal seat before delimtation has turned into a much more safe LDF seat with the transfer of three UDF strongholds mainly in Wayand district to the Wayanad seat. These seats have been replaced by LDF strongholds. Wayanad itself is composed of seven assembly segments all of which are traditional bastions of the UDF which have fallen to the LDF only during strong pro-LDF waves. The present political climate in the state which is marginally against the ruling LDF government means that the LDF will probably struggle to win Wayanad while winning Kozhikode.

The minuscle strength of the JD(S) in Kerala should in theory atleast mean that the CPI(M)'s wishes should be fulfiiled. However, the fact that the JD(S) is the only party which seems committed to a third front at the national level andVeerendrakumar being the owner of Mathrubhumi, the influential Malayalam daily might make the CPI(M) think twice about dumping the JD(S). The second tussle is over the Ponnani seat in Malappuram district which was once the safest seat for the UDF in the state. After delimitation, the seat has become marginaly more competitive and the CPI(M) senses the chance to win the seat with the right candidate. The CPI however has traditionally contested the seat and is in no mood to give up the seat just as there appears to be a genuine chance to win.

The conundrum is to be resolved tomorrow at the LDF executive meeting. Watch this space to know whether the CPI(M) succeds in wresting the two seats